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the Big Blog Company | U.S. online marketing forecast: $26 billion by 2010
“Who yer callin' a sparrow, you schmuck?!”
The bird on the back.
May 09 2005
U.S. online marketing forecast: $26 billion by 2010
Adriana Cronin-Lukas
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Charlene Li of Forrester Research blogs about the new report about online marketing. The report is not free but she helpfully summarises the top three points:

  • This is not the return of “The Bubble”. The growth is coming from marketers having to make tough decisions about allocating scarce advertising dollars – in many cases, funding online channels from traditional channels. Back in 1999/2000, spending often came from exuberant spending, fueled by venture money.
  • It’s more than just about search. Search is great, it’s growing, but it’s not the whole story. In fact, I anticipate that search will become much more integrated into traditional brand advertising – witness what Google and Yahoo! are doing in terms of tying CPM- and CPC-based products into the same ad ordering system.
  • Marketers will shift channels away from traditional channels to fund online marketing. The key is perceived effectiveness—most marketers saw traditional channels like TV and print becoming less effective over the next three years. Given the pressure marketers face to make every dollar count, they will shift spending to channels they believe are more effective. But note: this doesn’t mean a wholesale flight away from traditional media—I think it’s more of an adjustment in the marketing mix that takes into account the greater time and influence Internet use plays in our lives.

    The official executive summary is not very encouraging:

    Consumer broadband adoption has made the Internet a pervasive influence in users’ lives. Marketers have responded by pushing more of their budgets online, especially into search advertising, display ads, and rich media TV-style ads. The $26 billion that marketers will spend in 2010 in online display ads, email, search, and classified ads will represent 8% of all advertising spending — rivaling spending on cable/satellite TV and radio. Almost half of all marketers plan to increase online ad spending by decreasing spending in other channels.

    So we are going to see more banner ads, flash ads dancing around our screens and ‘targeted’ advertising. The marketers got themselves another channel. One that they can monitor, measure and ROI completely whether we like it or not, if only the stupid consumers did not delete their cookies, adware and spyware that we plant on their computers so we can measure the stickiness of their eyeballs.

    Oh joy.

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